Chapter 1  The Gathering Storm    1.1  The Gathering Storm    1.2  Into the Eye of the Storm    1.3  The Yuasa Phenomenon    1.4  Transformative Resea Chapter 1 The Gathering Storm 1.1 The Gathering Storm 1.2 Into the Eye of the Storm 1.3 The Yuasa Phenomenon 1.4 Transformative Research and the Nature of Creativity 1.5 Science and Society 1.6 Summary ReferencesChapter 2 Creative Thinking 2.1 Beyond Serendipity 2.2 The Study of Creative Work 2.3 Divergent Thinking 2.4 Blind Variation and Selective Retention 2.5 Binding Free-Floating Elements of Knowledge 2.6 Janusian Thinking 2.7 TRIZ 2.8 Summary ReferencesChapter 3 Cognitive Biases and Pitfalls 3.1 Finding Needles in a Haystack 3.1.1 Compounds in Chemical Space 3.1.2 Change Blindness 3.1.3 Missing the Obvious 3.2 Mental Models and Biases 3.2.1 Connecting the Right Dots 3.2.2 Rejecting Nobel Prize Worthy Works 3.3 Challenges to be Creative 3.3.1 Reasoning by Analogy 3.3.2 Competing Hypotheses 3.4 Boundary Objects 3.5 Early Warning Signs 3.6 Summary ReferencesChapter 4 Recognizing the Potential of Research 4.1 Hindsight 4.1.1 Hibernating Bears 4.1.2 Risks and Payoffs 4.1.3 Project Hindsight 4.1.4 TRACES 4.2 Foresight 4.2.1 Looking Ahead 4.2.2 Identifying Priorities 4.2.3 The Delphi Method 4.2.4 Hindsight on Foresight 4.3 Summary ReferencesChapter 5 Foraging 5.1 An Information-Theoretic View of Visual Analytics 5.1.1 Information Foraging and Sensemaking 5.1.2 Evidence and Beliefs 5.1.3 Salience and Novelty 5.1.4 Structural Holes and Brokerage 5.1.5 Macroscopic Views of Information Contents 5.2 Turning Points 5.2.1 The Index of the Interesting 5.2.2 Proteus Phenomenon 5.2.3 The Concept of Scientific Change 5.2.4 Specialties and Scientific Change 5.2.5 Knowledge Diffusion 5.2.6 Predictors of Future Citations 5.3 Generic Mechanisms for Scientific Discovery 5.3.1 Scientific Discovery as Problem Solving 5.3.2 Literature-Based Discovery 5.3.3 Spanning Diverse Perspectives 5.3.4 Bridging Intellectual Structural Holes 5.4 An Explanatory and Computational Theory of Discovery 5.4.1 Basic Elements of the Theory 5.4.2 Structural and Temporal Properties 5.4.3 Integration 5.4.4 Case Studies 5.5 Summary ReferencesChapter 6 Knowledge Domain Analysis 6.1 Progressive Knowledge Domain Visualization 6.1.1 Scientific Revolutions 6.1.2 Tasks 6.1.3 CiteSpace 6.2 A Multiple-Perspective Co-Citation Analysis 6.2.1 Extending the Traditional Procedure 6.2.2 Metrics 6.2.3 Clustering 6.2.4 Automatic Cluster Labeling 6.2.5 Visual Design 6.3 A Domain Analysis of Information Science 6.3.1 A Comparative ACA (2001-2005) 6.3.2 A Progressive ACA (1996-2008) 6.3.3 A Progressive DCA (1996-2008) 6.4 Summary ReferencesChapter 7 Messages in Text 7.1 Differentiating Conflicting Opinions 7.1.1 The Da Vinci Code 7.1.2 Terminology Variation 7.1.3 Reviews of The Da Vinci Code 7.1.4 Major Themes 7.1.5 Predictive Text Analysis 7.2 Analyzing Unstructured Text 7.2.1 Text Analysis 7.2.2 Searching for Missing Links 7.2.3 Concept Trees and Predicate Trees 7.3 Detecting Abrupt Changes 7.3.1 A Burst of Citations 7.3.2 Survival Analysis of Bursts 7.3.3 Differentiating Awarded and Declined Proposals 7.4 Summary ReferencesChapter 8 Transformative Potential 8.1 Transformative Research 8.2 Detecting the Transformative Potential 8.2.1 Connections between References and Citations 8.2.2 Measuring Novelty by Structural Variation 8.2.3 Statistical Validation 8.2.4 Case Study: Pulsars 8.3 Portfolio Evaluation 8.3.1 Identifying the Core Information of a Proposal 8.3.2 Information Extraction 8.3.3 Detecting Hot Topics 8.3.4 Identifying Potentially Transformative Proposals 8.4 Summary ReferencesChapter 9 The Way Ahead 9.1 The Gathering Storm 9.2 Creative Thinking 9.3 Biases and Pitfalls 9.4 Foraging 9.5 Knowledge Domain Analysis 9.6 Text Analysis 9.7 Transformative Potential 9.8 RecommendationsIndex